Prognostic and predictive biomarkers of abdominal aortic aneurysm growth rate

Objectives: To test the utility of clinical and circulating biomarkers to predict abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) growth rate and response to doxycycline therapy. Methods: Plasma samples were obtained in the Pharmaceutical Aneurysm Stabilization Trial that tested the effect of doxycycline (n = 44) vs. placebo (n = 49) in patients with a 35-50 mm AAA. Approximately 200 biomarkers were evaluated in a candidate approach that included markers of matrix turnover and cathepsin S activity and a broad-based approach of predominantly inflammation-related and clinical biomarkers. Results: In a recursive partitioning based analysis, total cholesterol, baseline AAA size, and apolipoprotein B were prognostic of AAA growth in the placebo group whereas elastin and biglycan degradation products were predictive of AAA growth with doxycycline treatment. Univariate analysis of these biomarkers showed that baseline total cholesterol (r = 0.38, unadjusted P = 0.011), apolipoprotein B (r = 0.41, unadjusted P = 0.005), and baseline AAA size (r = 0.35, unadjusted P = 0.013) correlated with AAA growth in the placebo but not the doxycycline group. Elastin fragments were associated with 18 month AAA growth (r = 0.33, unadjusted P = 0.031) in the doxycycline group. Limitations: Limitations of this study include small sample size, a retrospective growth analysis, and translatability of the method used to measure the analytes. Conclusions: This study implies that total cholesterol, baseline AAA size, and apolipoprotein B are predictors of AAA growth. Levels of elastin and biglycan fragments are predictive of doxycycline effects on AAA growth and provide a clue towards this unexpected negative effect.