A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5°C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies

被引：791

作者：

Grubler, Arnulf ^{[1
]}

Wilson, Charlie ^{[1
,2
]}

Bento, Nuno ^{[1
,3
]}

Boza-Kiss, Benigna ^{[1
]}

Krey, Volker ^{[1
]}

McCollum, David L. ^{[1
]}

Rao, Narasimha D. ^{[1
]}

Riahi, Keywan ^{[1
,4
,5
]}

Rogelj, Joeri ^{[1
,6
]}

De Stercke, Simon ^{[1
,7
]}

Cullen, Jonathan ^{[8
]}

Frank, Stefan ^{[1
]}

Fricko, Oliver ^{[1
]}

Guo, Fei ^{[1
]}

Gidden, Matt ^{[1
]}

Havlik, Petr ^{[1
]}

Huppmann, Daniel ^{[1
]}

Kiesewetter, Gregor ^{[1
]}

Rafaj, Peter ^{[1
]}

Schoepp, Wolfgang ^{[1
]}

Valin, Hugo ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

[2] UEA, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich, Norfolk, England

[3] IUL, ISCTE, DINAMIACET, Lisbon, Portugal

[4] Graz Univ Technol, Graz, Austria

[5] Colorado Sch Mines, Payne Inst, Golden, CO 80401 USA

[6] Imperial Coll London, Grantham Inst, London, England

[7] Imperial Coll London, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, London, England

[8] Univ Cambridge, Dept Engn, Cambridge, England

来源：

NATURE ENERGY | 2018年 / 3卷 / 06期

基金：

欧洲研究理事会;

关键词：

IMPACTS; INNOVATION; SECTOR; WIND;

D O I：

10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6

中图分类号：

TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];

学科分类号：

0807 ; 0820 ;

摘要：

Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 degrees C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies.

引用

页码：515 / 527

页数：13

共 69 条

[1]

Allwood J.M., 2011, SUSTAINABLE MAT BOTH

[2] Cost-effective control of air quality and greenhouse gases in Europe: Modeling and policy applications [J].

Amann, Markus ;

Bertok, Imrich ;

Borken-Kleefeld, Jens ;

Cofala, Janusz ;

Heyes, Chris ;

Hoeglund-Isaksson, Lena ;

Klimont, Zbigniew ;

Nguyen, Binh ;

Posch, Maximilian ;

Rafaj, Peter ;

Sandler, Robert ;

Schoepp, Wolfgang ;

Wagner, Fabian ;

Winiwarter, Wilfried .

ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE, 2011, 26 (12) :1489-1501

[3]

[Anonymous], 2015, STAT FOOD INS WORLD

[4]

[Anonymous], 2017, ICT FACTS FIG 2017

[5]

[Anonymous], DECOUPLING

[6]

[Anonymous], 2012, Global Energy Assessment: Toward a Sustainable Future, DOI [DOI 10.1017/CBO9780511793677.016, 10.1017/CBO9780511793677.016]

[7]

[Anonymous], 2015, WORLD URB PROSP 2014

[8]

[Anonymous], 2014, World Energy Outlook 2014 Executive Summary, DOI 10.1787/3a469970-en

[9]

[Anonymous], 2017, ITF TRANSP OUTL 2017

[10]

[Anonymous], 2017, EN TECHN PERSP 2017

← 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 →