Exploratory Modeling and Simulation to Support Development of Motesanib in Asian Patients With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Based on MONET1 Study Results

The motesanib phase III MONET1 study failed to show improvement in overall survival (OS) in non-small cell lung cancer, but a subpopulation of Asian patients had a favorable outcome. We performed exploratory modeling and simulations based on MONET1 data to support further development of motesanib in Asian patients. A model-based estimate of time to tumor growth was the best of tested tumor size response metrics in a multivariate OS model (P < 0.00001) to capture treatment effect (hazard ratio, HR) in Asian patients. Significant independent prognostic factors for OS were baseline tumor size (P < 0.0001), smoking history (P < 0.0001), and ethnicity (P < 0.00001). The model successfully predicted OS distributions and HR in the full population and in Asian patients. Simulations indicated that a phase III study in 500 Asian patients would exceed 80% power to confirm superior efficacy of motesanib combination therapy (expected HR: 0.74), suggesting that motesanib combination therapy may benefit Asian patients.