Risk Analysis for the Industrial Facilities under Fragment Impact

In this paper, a probabilistic model is presented in order to analyze the reliability of metallic targets imparted by cylindrical metallic projectiles (resulting from industrial facilities explosion). The random variables are from projectiles features as: mass, velocity at impact, incidence angle between projectile and target, dimension. A simplified mechanical model is proposed, in the case of cylindrical projectiles and planar targets. It relies on the hypothesis of plastic behaviour of the target constitutive material whereas it assumes that the projectile behaves as a rigid body. The theoretical penetration depth into the target is compared with experimental data collected from existing references. A probabilistic error model is associated to the mechanical model. The Log-normal distribution describes correctly the uncertainties that affect the whole governing parameters (mechanical simplifications, projectile dimensions, velocities and incidence angles at impact, etc.).