The likely effects of climate change on agricultural land use in England and Wales

被引：14

作者：

Hossell, JE

Jones, PJ

Marsh, JS

Parry, ML

Rehman, T

Tranter, RB

机构：

[1] UNIV READING, CTR AGR STRATEGY, READING RG6 2AT, BERKS, ENGLAND

[2] UCL, DEPT GEOG, LONDON WC1H 0AP, ENGLAND

[3] UNIV READING, DEPT AGR, READING RG6 2AT, BERKS, ENGLAND

来源：

GEOFORUM | 1996年 / 27卷 / 02期

基金：

英国经济与社会研究理事会;

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/0016-7185(96)00005-X

中图分类号：

P9 [自然地理学]; K9 [地理];

学科分类号：

0705 ; 070501 ;

摘要：

This article summarises the results of a modelling study that examines how the geographical pattern of agricultural land use and production in England and Wales might be affected by climate change. Various scenarios of regional climate change are considered by the model within a price and demand framework of a world food market also affected by global warming. The study concludes that over 3M ha of current farmland may become unprofitable for agriculture by 2060 (assuming no climate change). In addition, under the global warming scenarios postulated, a radical shift in the location of agricultural production, particularly of cereals, would be likely to occur. The merits of this modelling approach and its usefulness are also discussed. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

引用

页码：149 / 157

页数：9