African phoenix? Explaining the electoral performance of the formerly dominant parties in Africa

In this article we address the question: what explains the varying degrees of success of the formerly dominant political parties in African one-party states following 'democratic' transition? Indeed, political liberalization and democratization pose strong environmental shocks to formerly dominant parties and radically change the environment in which these parties exist. Such parties are faced with great pressures to adapt to their new environment. Why are some more successful than others? To address this question, we examine the evidence from 22 sub-Saharan African countries over 53 legislative elections from 1990 to 2003. We find that the legacies of different previous regimes, party incumbency and (to some extent) the degree of ethnolinguistic fractionalization, impact on the relative electoral success of the formerly dominant parties.