Simulations of frequency, intensity and tracks of cyclonic disturbances in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea

The paper presents the results of simulation experiments conducted for the assessment of likely changes in the cyclogenesis pattern in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and the Arabian Sea (AS) resulting from global climate change. Two experiments were performed, namely the 'control' (CTL) experiment in which the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere was fixed as per 1990 levels and the 'greenhouse gas' (GHG) experiment in which an annual compound increase of 1% from 1990 onwards was introduced. CTL and GHG experiments of 20 years length were performed for the period 2041-2060. The model used is the regional climate model Had RM2 of the Hadley Centre of Climate Prediction and Research, U.K. The results have brought out some significant changes in the cyclogenesis pattern in the North Indian Ocean (BOB and AS). The most significant likely change is the increase in the frequency of post-monsoon storms in the Bay of Bengal. The experiments show an increase of about 50% in the post-monsoonal cyclogenesis by 2041-2060 as a result of increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The frequency of monsoon depressions / storms in the BOB is likely to decrease considerably during June-August. Due to varying impacts in different seasons, the annual frequency of cyclonic disturbances may change marginally in the BOB. In the Arabian Sea, however the model has simulated a significant reduction in the frequency which may be halved by the period 2041-2060. The results show intensification of storms during May-June and September-November. The monsoon depressions during July-August are likely to become less intense. In GHG experiment most of the post-monsoon storms have a tendency to strike north Andhra-Orissa coasts whereas in CTL experiment the storms strike coast from Tamilnadu to south Orissa. Thus, the focus of post-monsoon storms in the BOB is likely to shift northwards from Tamilnadu-Andhra Pradesh coast to north Andhra Pradesh-south Orissa coast. Another important simulated change in storm tracks is that more number of pre-monsoon storms in the BOB may have a tendency to recurve north or northeastwards by 2041-2060.