Computational Analysis of Expected Climate Change in the Carpathian Basin Using a Dynamical Climate Model

For analyzing the possible regional climate change in the Carpathian Basin, model PRECIS has been adapted, which is the hydrostatic regional climate model HadRM3P developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, and nested in HadCM3 GCM. First, control run simulations (1961-1990) of the PRECIS model (with two different sets of boundary conditions) are analyzed. In the validation, seasonal temperature and precipitation mean values from the CRU datasets are used. According to the results, model PRECIS slightly overestimates the temperature and underestimates the precipitation. Then, model results for the periods 2071-2100 (using SRES A2 scenario) and 1961-1990 (as the reference period) are compared. The results suggest that the temperature increase expected in the Carpathian Basin may considerably exceed the global warming rate. The climate of this region is expected to become wetter in winter and drier in the other seasons.