Placing bounds on extreme temperature response of maize

Plant water availability is a key factor that determines maize yield response to excess heat. Lack of available data has limited researchers' ability to estimate this relationship at regional and global scales. Using a new soil moisture data set developed by running a crop growth simulator over historical data we demonstrate how current estimates of maize yield sensitivity to high temperature are misleading. We develop an empirical model relating observed yields to climate variables and soil moisture in a high maize production region in the United States to develop bounds on yield sensitivity to high temperatures. For the portion of the region with a relatively long growing season, yield reduction per degrees C is 10% for high water availability and 32.5% for low water availability. Where the growing season is shorter, yield reduction per degrees C is 6% for high water availability and 27% for low water availability. These results indicate the importance of using both water availability and temperature to model crop yield response to explain future climate change on crop yields.