Quantitative Analysis on Risk Influencing Factors in the Jiangsu Segment of the Yangtze River

被引：28

作者：

Zhang, Jinfen ^{[1
,2
]}

He, Anxin ^{[1
,2
]}

Fan, Cunlong ^{[1
,2
]}

Yan, Xinping ^{[1
,2
]}

Soares, C. Guedes ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Wuhan Univ Technol, Intelligent Transportat Syst Res Ctr, Wuhan, Peoples R China

[2] Wuhan Univ Technol, Natl Engn Res Ctr Water Transport Safety, WTS Ctr, Wuhan, Peoples R China

[3] Univ Lisbon, Inst Super Tecn, Ctr Marine Technol & Ocean Engn CENTEC, Lisbon, Portugal

来源：

RISK ANALYSIS | 2021年 / 41卷 / 09期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金; 美国国家科学基金会; 欧盟地平线“2020”;

关键词：

Conjugate Bayesian model; Jiangsu segment of the Yangtze river; maritime transportation; risk influencing factors (RIFs); ship collision; FORMAL SAFETY ASSESSMENT; SHIP COLLISION RISK; TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS; STATISTICAL-ANALYSIS; MARITIME ACCIDENTS; BAYESIAN NETWORK; AIS DATA; PORT; RELIABILITY; PERSPECTIVE;

D O I：

10.1111/risa.13662

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

Quantitative risk influencing factors (RIFs) are proposed, using the Conjugate Bayesian update approach to analyze 945 collision accidents and incidents cases from the Jiangsu Segment of the Yangtze River over five years from 2012 to 2016. The accident probability is compared under a pairwise comparison mode in order to reflect the relative risk between accidental situations. The Bayesian update mode is constructed to quantitatively evaluate the relative importance of different RIFs. The riskiest segment of Jiangsu Waterways as well the main causations of collisions are identified based on the distributions of collision risk in the six segments of the waterways. The results can support managers to develop the most effective policies to mitigate the collision risk.

引用

页码：1560 / 1578

页数：19

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