Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic

被引：295

作者：

Buss, Lewis F. ^{[1
,2
]}

Prete Jr, Carlos A. ^{[3
]}

Abrahim, Claudia M. M. ^{[4
]}

Mendrone Jr, Alfredo ^{[5
,6
]}

Salomon, Tassila ^{[7
,8
]}

de Almeida-Neto, Cesar ^{[5
,6
]}

Franca, Rafael F. O. ^{[9
]}

Belotti, Maria C. ^{[3
]}

Carvalho, Maria P. S. S. ^{[4
]}

Costa, Allyson G. ^{[4
]}

Crispim, Myuki A. E. ^{[4
]}

Ferreira, Suzete C. ^{[5
,6
]}

Fraiji, Nelson A. ^{[4
]}

Gurzenda, Susie ^{[10
]}

Whittaker, Charles ^{[11
]}

Kamaura, Leonardo T. ^{[12
]}

Takecian, Pedro L. ^{[12
]}

Peixoto, Pedro da Silva ^{[12
]}

Oikawa, Marcio K. ^{[13
]}

Nishiya, Anna S. ^{[5
,6
]}

Rocha, Vanderson ^{[5
,6
]}

Salles, Nanci A. ^{[5
]}

de Souza Santos, Andreza Aruska ^{[14
]}

da Silva, Martirene A. ^{[4
]}

Custer, Brian ^{[15
,16
]}

Parag, Kris, V ^{[17
]}

Barral-Netto, Manoel ^{[18
]}

Kraemer, Moritz U. G. ^{[19
]}

Pereira, Rafael H. M. ^{[20
]}

Pybus, Oliver G. ^{[19
]}

Busch, Michael P. ^{[15
,16
]}

Castro, Marcia C. ^{[10
]}

Dye, Christopher ^{[19
]}

Nascimento, Vitor H. ^{[3
]}

Faria, Nuno R. ^{[1
,2
,17
,19
]}

Sabino, Ester C. ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Fac Med, Dept Molestias Infecciosas & Parasitarias, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[2] Univ Sao Paulo, Fac Med, Inst Med Trop, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[3] Escola Politecn Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Engn Sistemas Eletron, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[4] Fundacao Hosp Hematol & Hemoterapia Amazonas, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil

[5] Fundacao Pro Sangue Hemoctr Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[6] Univ Sao Paulo, Hosp Clin HCFMUSP, Dept Hematol,Fac Med, Lab Invest Med Patogenese & Terapia Dirigida Onco, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[7] Fundacao Hemominas Fundacao Ctr Hematol & Hemoter, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil

[8] Fac Ciencias Med Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil

[9] Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz, Inst Aggeu Magalhaes, Dept Virol & Expt Therapy, Recife, PE, Brazil

[10] Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Global Hlth & Populat, Boston, MA USA

[11] Imperial Coll London, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London, England

[12] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Math & Stat, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[13] Univ Fed ABC, Ctr Math Comp & Cognit, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[14] Univ Oxford, Latin Amer Ctr, Oxford Sch Global & Area Studies, Oxford, England

[15] Vitalant Res Inst, San Francisco, CA USA

[16] Univ Calif San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94143 USA

[17] Imperial Coll London, MRC Ctr Global Infect Dis Anal, J IDEA, London, England

[18] Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz Fiocruz, Inst Goncalo Moniz, Salvador, BA, Brazil

[19] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford, England

[20] Inst Appl Econ Res Ipea, Brasilia, DF, Brazil

来源：

SCIENCE | 2021年 / 371卷 / 6526期

基金：

巴西圣保罗研究基金会; 英国惠康基金; 英国医学研究理事会;

关键词：

PREVALENCE; SEROPREVALENCE; ANTIBODIES; INFECTION;

D O I：

10.1126/science.abe9728

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread rapidly in Manaus, the capital of Amazonas state in northern Brazil. The attack rate there is an estimate of the final size of the largely unmitigated epidemic that occurred in Manaus. We use a convenience sample of blood donors to show that by June 2020, 1 month after the epidemic peak in Manaus, 44% of the population had detectable immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies. Correcting for cases without a detectable antibody response and for antibody waning, we estimate a 66% attack rate in June, rising to 76% in October. This is higher than in Sao Paulo, in southeastern Brazil, where the estimated attack rate in October was 29%. These results confirm that when poorly controlled, COVID-19 can infect a large proportion of the population, causing high mortality.

引用

页码：288 / +

页数：27

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