Implications for US Trade and Nonindigenous Species Risk Resulting from Increased Economic Integration of the Asia-Pacific Region

This work investigates how potential changes in trade patterns resulting from increased economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region may affect the risk for nonindigenous species spread to the United States. We construct an invasion risk index utilizing the results from a global economic modeling framework in tandem with data for climate similarities between trade partners. The index is based on risk of introduction, determined by changes in trade, and risk of establishment, given by terrestrial and marine climate similarities between countries. The results indicate that Japan may be the riskiest trade partner for the United States in the Asia-Pacific region from a nonindigenous species perspective. This is driven by large expected changes in trade and high environmental similarity between the two countries. This research provides the basis of a risk assessment prediction system to examine the effects of changes in trade on nonindigenous species risk, an important, novel contribution to the trade policy literature.