The evolution of political-economic challenges in the active zone

Some trade frictions are more important than others because they represent changes or possible changes in systemic economic leadership. Based on several strong assumptions about the nature of international political economy, a multivariate model that differentiates between political economic challenges that lead to intense, militarized conflicts and those that do not is constructed. Ten iterations of challenges over the past millennium provide empirical support for the applicability of the model. Provided that the model's assumptions continue to hold, it also has clear implications for evaluating the long-term conflict potential of the ongoing US-Japanese commercial competition. While an intense challenge is quite possible, a militarized conflict between Japan and the United States over economic leadership some time in the twenty-first century is not the most probable scenario.