DECADAL WATER RESOURCES PROJECTIONS OVER THE STATE OF TEXAS USA

The water planning in Texas is responsible for assessing water supplies, demands, needs, and strategies over a 50-year planning period, which has demonstrated significant benefits for the state. However, the current planning needs more insights from the climate change impacts affecting regional hydrological processes and available water resources in both precipitation and temperature-driven evapotranspiration. This study develops a spatial multi-linear regression model of actual evapotranspiration to estimate decadal water resources projections (2020-2100) over the state using ensemble climate datasets. The results show different yearly and monthly changing trends of water resource variables in regional water planning areas in Texas under three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCPs 4.5, 6.0, 8.5). This work sheds lights on how climate change impacts the water availability as a critical factor to be considered in a long-term water planning.