A System Dynamics Model for Technology Maturation & Capability Development within the US Dept. of Navy

The purpose of this paper is to develop a systems dynamics model to probe the impacts of investment management decisions on early vs. late stage research. The model attempts to capture the dynamics associated with project completion time and cost as a function of inherent project risk and risk mitigation measures. The investment management decisions (i.e., independent variables) are the individual project expected impact which is assumed to be proportional to technical risk involved and the fraction of budget diverted to early technology maturation prior to project commencement. This notion of early technology maturation is intended to represent the aggregate effects of refining and solidifying detailed requirements, exposing and addressing areas of low technology maturity, and evolving the underlying technology to best meet user needs. This systems dynamics model is first run for a single project to understand its operation and to glean insights concerning how cost and schedule are impacted by investment management decisions. The model is then applied to multiple communities executing multiple projects simultaneously. This reveals insights into managing a portfolio of projects selected to have different technical risk levels and commensurately manage how much budget to devote to early technology maturation. Specific insights are uncovered for managing early technology maturation as a function of inherent project risk; for given levels of project cost, work involved, and early maturation impact; and when looking to optimize both project risk and early technology maturation simultaneously.