Risk of de novo aneurysm formation in patients with a prior diagnosis of ruptured or unruptured aneurysm: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE De novo aneurysms are rare entities periodically discovered during follow-up imaging. Little is known regarding the frequency with which these lesions form or the time course. This systematic review and meta-analysis was undertaken to estimate the incidence of de novo aneurysms and to determine risk factors for aneurysm formation. METHODS The authors searched multiple databases for studies of patients with unruptured and ruptured aneurysms describing the rate of de novo aneurysm formation. The primary outcome was incidence of de novo aneurysm formation. A meta-analysis was performed using a random-effects model. The authors examined the associations of multiple aneurysms, prior subarachnoid hemorrhage, smoking, sex, age at presentation, and hypertension with de novo aneurysm formation. RESULTS The meta-analysis included 14,968 aneurysm patients who received imaging follow-up from 35 studies. The overall incidence of de novo aneurysm formation was 2% (95% CI 2%-3%) over a mean follow-up time of 8.3 years. The estimated incidence density was 0.3%/patient-year. There was no statistically significant difference in rates of de novo aneurysm formation between patients who had ruptured aneurysms and those with unruptured aneurysms. In 8 studies, 11.2% of de novo aneurysms were found in patients with <= 5 years of follow-up and 88.8% were found at > 5 years. The mean time to rupture for de novo aneurysms was 10 years. CONCLUSIONS This systematic review demonstrates that formation of de novo aneurysms is rare. Overall, routine screening for de novo aneurysms is likely to be of low yield and could be performed at time intervals of at least 5 to 10 years.