Forecasting the Diffusion of Smart Speakers in the Indian Market Using Bass, Gompertz, and Logistic Models

Due to a lack of historical data, forecasting the diffusion of new products in an emerging market is important yet challenging. Managers often resort to inefficient forecasting practices to understand diffusion and to stay ahead of the competition. This study aims to forecast sales for smart speakers in India, which have been introduced recently. Due to the lack of adequate sales data, the research has used sales data of analogous products using look-alike analysis to estimate the parameters of diffusion models. The authors forecasted future sales using three relevant diffusion models-the Bass, the Gompertz, and the Logistic-to determine the model to forecast sales for smart speakers. The analysis revealed that the Bass model gave better predictions as compared to the other two models. The results were validated using parameter estimates from secondary literature. This study predicts that the aggregate sales of smart speakers in India will peak around 2023-27.