An experimental test of prospect theory for predicting choice under ambiguity

被引：40

作者：

Kothiyal, Amit ^{[1
]}

Spinu, Vitalie ^{[2
]}

Wakker, Peter P. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Max Planck Inst Human Dev & Educ, D-14195 Berlin, Germany

[2] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Anderson Sch Management, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA

[3] Erasmus Univ, Erasmus Sch Econ, NL-3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands

来源：

JOURNAL OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY | 2014年 / 48卷 / 01期

关键词：

EXPECTED-UTILITY-THEORY; UNCERTAINTY AVERSION; DECISION WEIGHTS; RISK; MODELS; PROBABILITY; FOUNDATIONS; PREFERENCES; DEFINITION; ATTITUDES;

D O I：

10.1007/s11166-014-9185-0

中图分类号：

F8 [财政、金融];

学科分类号：

0202 ;

摘要：

Prospect theory is the most popular theory for predicting decisions under risk. This paper investigates its predictive power for decisions under ambiguity, using its specification through the source method. We find that it outperforms its most popular alternatives, including subjective expected utility, Choquet expected utility, and three multiple priors theories: maxmin expected utility, maxmax expected utility, and alpha-maxmin expected utility.

引用

页码：1 / 17

页数：17

共 80 条

[21] Commonalities in time and ambiguity aversion for long-term risks [J].

Chesson, HW ;

Viscusi, WK .

THEORY AND DECISION, 2003, 54 (01) :57-71

[22] Consistency and heterogeneity of individual behavior under uncertainty [J].

Choi, Syngjoo ;

Fisman, Raymond ;

Gale, Douglas ;

Kariv, Shachar .

AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2007, 97 (05) :1921-1938

[23] Sets of probability distributions, independence, and convexity [J].

Cozman, Fabio G. .

SYNTHESE, 2012, 186 (02) :577-600

[24] Dynamic choice and the common ratio effect: An experimental investigation [J].

Cubitt, RP ;

Starmer, C ;

Sugden, R .

ECONOMIC JOURNAL, 1998, 108 (450) :1362-1380

[25] Eliciting decision weights by adapting de Finetti's betting-odds method to prospect theory [J].

Diecidue, Enrico ;

Wakker, Peter P. ;

Zeelenberg, Marcel .

JOURNAL OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY, 2007, 34 (03) :179-199

[26] A dynamic Ellsberg urn experiment [J].

Dominiak, Adam ;

Duersch, Peter ;

Lefort, Jean-Philippe .

GAMES AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR, 2012, 75 (02) :625-638

[27]

Dreze Jacques H., 1987, Essays on Economic Decision Under Uncertainty

[28] A theory of subjective compound lotteries [J].

Ergin, Haluk ;

Gul, Faruk .

JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY, 2009, 144 (03) :899-929

[29]

Eron S. A., 2012, PURELY SUBJECT UNPUB

[30] DECISION THEORY UNDER AMBIGUITY [J].

Etner, Johanna ;

Jeleva, Meglena ;

Tallon, Jean-Marc .

JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SURVEYS, 2012, 26 (02) :234-270

← 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 →