Regional Power Transition and the Future of Turkey

This study analyzes the regional power transitions for Turkey. The authors utilize both the Power Transitions Theory and the Human Development Theory to foresee Turkey's future regional relations. The findings indicate that Turkey's relations with the EU, Russia and Iran will be quite challenging. According to the forecasting, the probability of conflict between Turkey-Russia and Turkey-Iran will increase. Compared to Iran, Turkey's propensity of conflict with Russia will be higher. Only in a scenario of joining the EU, Turkey's probability of conflict with Russia and Iran decreases. EU membership stabilizes Turkey's most challenging regional relationships. On the other hand, Human Development Dynamics demonstrate that Turkey is moving away from major European countries in terms ofvalues, becoming less secular and more traditional. Our statistical models display that value convergence is a significant factor in integration, indicating that the likelihood of Turkey's European integration is slim.