Prostate-specific antigen nadir within 12 months of prostate cancer radiotherapy predicts metastasis and death

BACKGROUND. The nadir prostate-specific antigen (PSA) at 1 year (nPSA12) was investigated as an early estimate of biochemical and clinical outcome after radiotherapy (RT) alone for localized prostate cancer. METHODS. From May 1989 to November 1999, 1000 men received 3D conformal RT alone (median, 76 Gy) with minimum and median follow-up periods of 26 and 58 months, respectively, from the end of treatment. The calculation of PSA doubling time (PSADT) was possible in 657 patients. Multivariate analyses (NTVAs) via Cox proportional hazards regression were used to determine the association of nPSA12 to biochemical failure (BF; ASTRO definition), distant metastasis (DM), cause-specific mortality (CSM), and overall mortality (OM). Dichotomization of nPSA12 was optimized by evaluating the sequential model likelihood ratio and P-values. RESULTS. In MVA, nPSA12 as a continuous variable was independent of RT dose, T-stage, Gleason score, pretreatment initial PSA, age, and PSADT in predicting for BF, DM, CSM, and OM. Dichotomized nPSA12 (<= 2 versus > 2 ng/mL was independently related to DM and CSM. Kaplan-Meier 10-year DM rates for nPSA12 <= 2 versus > 2 ng/mL were 4% versus 19% (P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS. nPSA12 is a strong independent predictor of outcome after RT alone for prostate cancer and should be useful in identifying patients at high risk for progression to metastasis and death. Cancer 2007; 109:41-7. (c) 2006 American Cancer Society.