Suicide and gross domestic product in Chile:: Toward a predictive model

In this article suicide is examined from a psychological and economical perspective. Contrasting with the relatively low rates of suicide in Latin America as compared to ex-URSS and other European countries, this phenomenon has experienced a progressive growth in Chile, especially among 15-34 years old population. The analysis of suicide rates in Chile for the 1981-2002 period shows an ascending and uneven curve, which is correlated with some economical indexes, such as GDP (r=0.87). A predictive model that relates GDP and suicide (error of 3.8%) is presented. Chilean global social market economy model has lead to economical growth but it has caused economic and health inequality, precarious labour conditions, and interpersonal distrust, which may explain the poor mental health indicators, as measure by growing suicide rates. In this analysis of suicide, several methodological difficulties were found. First, there is a lack of updated databases, which makes difficult the comparisons among Latin-American countries. Second, it is very difficult to get individual information for most cases of suicide, and, when it is available, the records are incomplete, lacking of epidemiologically relevant data, such a the educational level of the victim. It is concluded that an analysis of suicide in Latin-America should include both a psycho-social and an economical perspective. Researchers, officers and authorities are encouraged to update the databases in the countries of the region.