Time-variant reliability analysis considering parameter uncertainties

It has been realised that the effect of system parameter uncertainties may be very important, even dominant, in time-variant structural reliability. In this study, currently available methods are reviewed, and general performance functions corresponding to dynamic reliability analysis considering parameter uncertainties are investigated. A moment method for time-variant reliability analysis considering parameter uncertainties is developed, and its application is demonstrated through reliability assessment of a prestressed concrete containment. Point estimation is applied to evaluate the first few moments of the general performance function of a structure, from which the moment-based reliability index based on the fourth moment standardisation function can be evaluated without Monte Carlo simulations. The procedure does not require the computation of derivatives or the determination of the design point; thus, it should be computationally effective for time-variant structural reliability assessment.