Predictors of joint damage progression and stringent remission in patients with established rheumatoid arthritis in clinical remission

Objectives. To study if clinical, radiographic and MRI markers can predict MRI and radiographic damage progression and achievement of stringent remission in patients with established RA in clinical remission followed by a targeted treatment strategy. Methods. RA patients (DAS28-CRP <3.2, no swollen joints) receiving conventional synthetic DMARDs were randomized to conventional or MRI-targeted treat-to-target strategies with predefined algorithmic treatment escalations. Potentially predictive baseline variables were tested in multivariate logistic regression analyses. Results. In the 171 patients included, baseline MRI osteitis independently predicted progression in MRI erosion [odds ratio (OR) 1.13 (95% CI 1.06, 1.22)], joint space narrowing [OR 1.15 (95% CI 1.07, 1.24)] and combined damage [OR 1.23 (95% CI 1.13, 1.37)], while tenosynovitis independently predicted MRI erosion progression [OR 1.13 (95% CI 1.03, 1.25)]. A predictor of radiographic erosion progression was age, while gender predicted progression in joint space narrowing. Following an MRI treat-to-target strategy predicted stringent remission across all remission definitions: Clinical Disease Activity Index remission OR 2.94 (95% CI 1.25, 7.52), Simplified Disease Activity Index remission OR 2.50 (95% CI 1.01, 6.66), ACR/EULAR Boolean remission OR 5.47 (95% CI 2.33, 14.13). Similarly, low tender joint count and low patient visual analogue scale pain and global independently predicted achievement of more stringent remission. Conclusion. Baseline MRI osteitis and tenosynovitis were independent predictors of 2 year MRI damage progression in RA patients in clinical remission, while independent predictors of radiographic damage progression were age and gender. Following an MRI treat-to-target strategy, low scores of patient-reported outcomes and low tender joint count predicted achievement of stringent remission.