Analysis of the predictors of surgical treatment and intestinal necrosis in children with intestinal obstruction

Purpose: To explore the surgical treatment and predictors of intestinal necrosis in children with intestinal obstruction through analyzing blood biochemical indicators, and to establish a predictive model and evaluate its predictive accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Methods: The data of children with intestinal obstruction hospitalized in Jiangxi Provincial Children's Hospital from January 2014 to June 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. Results: Thirty-six substances in the blood of children with successful conservative management and those requiring surgical treatment were significantly different. The model composed of 7 variables, including age, white blood cell count, creatine kinase, troponin I, myoglobin, C-reactive protein and fibrinogen, can be used to predict the unsuccessful conservative management in children with intestinal obstruction, whom need further operation. The average prediction accuracy was 83.50%, the false positive rate was 16.67% (32/192), AUROC is 0.9160 (95% CI, 0.8930-0.9390), and the sensitivity and specificity were 83.20% and 92.70% respectively. A prediction model based on the white blood cell count, creatine kinase, troponin I and myoglobin could predict the occurrence of intestinal necrosis. The average prediction accuracy was 73.70%, false positive rate was 4.49% (15/334), AUROC was 0.7390 (95% CI, 0.6820-0.7960), and the sensitivity and specificity were 71.70% and 64.70%, respectively. Conclusions: Combination of age, white blood cell count, creatine kinase, troponin I, myoglobin, C-reactive protein and fibrinogen can be used to predict whether the children with intestinal obstruction need surgical treatment or not. Leukocyte count, creatine kinase, troponin I and myoglobin are closely related to the condition of children with intestinal obstruction and can be used to predict whether intestinal necrosis occurs. (C) 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.