Modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment sepsis score in an emergency department setting: Retrospective assessment of prognostic value

ObjectiveUse of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score has been proposed by the Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock. The utility in the ED is not yet well established. We retrospectively studied the application of a modified SOFA (mSOFA) score, to assess its ability to predict mortality. MethodsAt our urban tertiary teaching hospital staff recorded patients with probable sepsis in the ED Information System (EDIS). Data was analysed for the year of July 2015 to June 2016. For a sample of the suspected sepsis patients, ED and inpatient clinical records were manually reviewed to ascribe an mSOFA score and assess its performance in predicting mortality, with a primary outcome of death by 30 days. ResultsThere were 474 patients recorded over the 1 year with probable sepsis, of whom 228 were manually reviewed. The mSOFA was a significant predictor of mortality at all the time points tested. The 30 day mortality was 22/88 (25%) for those with a positive mSOFA score and 3 out of 140 (2.1%) of those with a negative mSOFA score (OR 15.2, 95% CI [4.4, 52.7]; P < 0.001). This equated to a negative predictive value of 97.9% (95% exact CI 93.9-99.6%). ConclusionFor ED patients thought likely to have sepsis, the mSOFA score distinguished those with a high or low mortality risk. The high negative predictive value could be practically useful. Prospective study of the mSOFA score used in ED will be needed to validate these observations.