Upgrading Informal Settlements in South Africa: Policy, Rhetoric and what Residents really Value

A billion persons live in slums worldwide, and 2 million households live in informal housing in South Africa. The stated goal of the South African government is to overcome this housing backlog by 2014; but doubling the budget will achieve this by only 2030. Current policy is to deliver a choice of housing alternatives; but in practice 'a house on a fully serviced property with freehold title' is seen as the only alternative. This paper describes a model that estimates the value that residents of an informal settlement place on aspects such as level of municipal engineering services, location and type of upgrade, and the size of the dwelling. The model was applied to three issues in the current debate on informal settlement upgrading in South Africa; namely: whether to upgrade by relocating all residents to a 'greenfield' site or upgrading 'in situ'? Whether to upgrade incrementally across many settlements or upgrade fully one settlement at a time? Whether to offer residents more than one upgrade alternative? The stated choice approach provides a method to develop and test many housing alternatives as part of involving the community in the upgrading of an informal settlement.