Multi-layered foresight: Lessons from regional foresight in Chile

被引:21
作者
Dufva, Mikko [1 ]
Konnola, Totti [2 ]
Koivisto, Raija [1 ]
机构
[1] VTT Tech Res Ctr Finland Ltd, Tampere 33101, Finland
[2] IFI, Madrid 28036, Spain
关键词
Foresight; Innovation system; Foresight design; Foresight evaluation; INNOVATION SYSTEMS; TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT; CORPORATE FORESIGHT; FUTURES; CAPACITY; EXPLORATION; MANAGEMENT; IMPACT; UNIVERSITIES; EXPERIENCES;
D O I
10.1016/j.futures.2015.08.010
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
The design, management and evaluation of foresight is challenging firstly due to the vast diversity of foresight practices and secondly due to its embeddedness in the context of other policy processes. To help overcome these challenges we look at the contributions of foresight from multiple perspectives in a systemic way and propose the concept of multilayered foresight, which analyses the contributions of foresight to knowledge, relations and capabilities on four layers: landscape, system, organisation and individual. We construct these layers building on earlier literature and illustrate them with a case example from the region of Antofagasta in Chile. We argue that foresight exercises benefit from considering multiple levels and respective different emphases in analysis. For instance, on the landscape layer the focus tends to be on contributions to knowledge while on the organisational layer it is more on capabilities. The layers help position the foresight exercise and its effects in relation to the broader context. Thus, we expect the concept of multilayered foresight to support the design, management and evaluation of foresight. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:100 / 111
页数:12
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