China's CO2 peak before 2030 implied from characteristics and growth of cities

被引:284
作者
Wang, Haikun [1 ]
Lu, Xi [2 ,3 ,4 ]
Deng, Yu [5 ]
Sun, Yaoguang [1 ]
Nielsens, Chris P. [6 ]
Li, Yifan [1 ]
Zhu, Ge [1 ]
Bu, Maoliang [7 ,8 ]
Bi, Jun [1 ]
McElroy, Michael B. [6 ,9 ]
机构
[1] Nanjing Univ, Sch Environm, State Key Lab Pollut Control & Resource Reuse, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
[2] Tsinghua Univ, Sch Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China
[3] Tsinghua Univ, State Key Joint Lab Environm Simulat & Pollut Con, Beijing, Peoples R China
[4] State Environm Protect Key Lab Sources & Control, Beijing, Peoples R China
[5] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
[6] Harvard Univ, John A Paulson Sch Engn & Appl Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA
[7] Nanjing Univ, Sch Business, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
[8] Nanjing Univ, Hopkins Nanjing Ctr, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
[9] Harvard Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, 20 Oxford St, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA
基金
国家重点研发计划; 中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS; CLIMATE-CHANGE; ENERGY USE; CARBON MITIGATION; AIR-POLLUTION; CONSUMPTION; BENCHMARKS; STRATEGIES; US;
D O I
10.1038/s41893-019-0339-6
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
China pledges to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 or sooner under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2 degrees C or less by the end of the century. By examining CO2 emissions from 50 Chinese cities over the period 2000-2016, we found a close relationship between per capita emissions and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) for individual cities, following the environmental Kuznets curve, despite diverse trajectories for CO2 emissions across the cities. Results show that carbon emissions peak for most cities at a per capita GDP (in 2011 purchasing power parity) of around US$21,000 (80% confidence interval: US$19,000 to 22,000). Applying a Monte Carlo approach to simulate the peak of per capita emissions using a Kuznets function based on China's historical emissions, we project that emissions for China should peak at 13-16 GtCO(2)yr(-1) between 2021 and 2025, approximately 5-10 yr ahead of the current Paris target of 2030. We show that the challenges faced by individual types of Chinese cities in realizing low-carbon development differ significantly depending on economic structure, urban form and geographical location.
引用
收藏
页码:748 / 754
页数:7
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