The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue

被引：769

作者：

Messina, Jane P. ^{[1
,2
]}

Brady, Oliver J. ^{[3
,4
]}

Golding, Nick ^{[5
]}

Kraemer, Moritz U. G. ^{[6
,7
,8
]}

Wint, G. R. William ^{[9
]}

Ray, Sarah E. ^{[10
]}

Pigott, David M. ^{[10
]}

Shearer, Freya M. ^{[11
]}

Johnson, Kimberly ^{[10
]}

Earl, Lucas ^{[10
]}

Marczak, Laurie B. ^{[10
]}

Shirude, Shreya ^{[10
]}

Weaver, Nicole Davis ^{[10
]}

Gilbert, Marius ^{[12
]}

Velayudhan, Raman ^{[13
]}

Jones, Peter ^{[14
]}

Jaenisch, Thomas ^{[15
]}

Scott, Thomas W. ^{[16
]}

Reiner, Robert C., Jr. ^{[10
]}

Hay, Simon, I ^{[10
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford, England

[2] Univ Oxford, Sch Interdisciplinary Area Studies, Oxford, England

[3] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Math Modelling Infect Dis, London, England

[4] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London, England

[5] Univ Melbourne, Sch Biosci, Parkville, Vic, Australia

[6] Harvard Univ, Harvard Med Sch, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[7] Boston Childrens Hosp, Boston, MA USA

[8] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford, England

[9] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Environm Res Grp Oxford, Oxford, England

[10] Univ Washington, Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[11] Univ Oxford, Li Ka Shing Ctr Hlth Informat & Discovery, Big Data Inst, Oxford, England

[12] Univ Libre Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium

[13] WHO, Geneva, Switzerland

[14] Waen Associates Ltd, Dolgellau, Gwynedd, Wales

[15] Heidelberg Univ Hosp, Dept Infect Dis, Sect Clin Trop Med, Heidelberg, Germany

[16] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Entomol & Nematol, Davis, CA 95616 USA

来源：

NATURE MICROBIOLOGY | 2019年 / 4卷 / 09期

基金：

英国惠康基金; 美国国家卫生研究院; 欧盟第七框架计划; 比尔及梅琳达.盖茨基金会;

关键词：

CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH; SYLVATIC DENGUE; FEVER; VIRUS; MODELS; SCENARIOS; TRANSMISSION; DYNAMICS; STABILIZATION; URBANIZATION;

D O I：

10.1038/s41564-019-0476-8

中图分类号：

Q93 [微生物学];

学科分类号：

071005 ; 100705 ;

摘要：

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world's population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.

引用

页码：1508 / 1515

页数：8

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