Climate change threatens pollination services in tomato crops in Brazil

Understanding how climate change may affect species distribution helps predict how ecosystem services, such as pollination, could be impaired in the future. We examine the potential consequences of climate change on the geographical distribution of five native bee species and estimate the possible effects of bee distribution shifts on tomato crops in Brazil. Ensemble forecasting was implemented through five algorithms in two carbon emission scenarios to predict range shifts for five tomato-visiting bee species for the year 2100. We then calculated the total tomato crop area in the cells with at least 50% bee suitability, for each bee species, in each scenario. Results showed that all species will undergo a reduction in suitable areas in both scenarios. Bombus mono had the greatest area reduction in 2100 under the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios: near 38% and 71%, respectively. Centris tarsata had the smaller area reduction under the same scenarios: 8.5% and 19.5% respectively. The high agreement between tomato crops and bee distribution observed in the present will also be reduced in both Scenarios for all species, especially in the pessimistic scenario. B. mono had the highest reduction in range due to habitat suitability and will be restricted to some parts of southeastern and southern Brazil. Over 60% of the tomato crop area presently within the distribution of B. mono will become climatically unsuitable in the pessimistic emission scenario. This study indicates that the predicted climate change may negatively impact several species associated with tomato crops in Brazil by the year 2100. This is troubling, as it could result in tomato production losses, which would bring economic and environmental losses to the tomato-producing regions with implications for pollinator conservation. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.