Simulation and Prediction of Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes in the High-Resolution GFDL HiFLOR Coupled Climate Model

被引：196

作者：

Murakami, Hiroyuki ^{[1
,2
]}

Vecchi, Gabriel A. ^{[1
,2
]}

Underwood, Seth ^{[3
]}

Delworth, Thomas L. ^{[1
,2
]}

Wittenberg, Andrew T. ^{[1
]}

Anderson, Whit G. ^{[1
]}

Chen, Jan-Huey ^{[1
]}

Gudgel, Richard G. ^{[1
]}

Harris, Lucas M. ^{[1
]}

Lin, Shian-Jiann ^{[1
]}

Zeng, Fanrong ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA

[2] Princeton Univ, Atmospher & Ocean Sci Program, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA

[3] NOAA, Engility, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE | 2015年 / 28卷 / 23期

基金：

美国海洋和大气管理局;

关键词：

Atm; Ocean Structure; Phenomena; Tropical cyclones; Forecasting; Climate prediction; Hindcasts; Models and modeling; Climate models; TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY; WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC; GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC MODEL; SEASONAL PREDICTIONS; EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS; PROJECT ATHENA; FUTURE CHANGES; PART II; FREQUENCY; INTENSITY;

D O I：

10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0216.1

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

A new high-resolution Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model [the High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) model (HiFLOR)] has been developed and used to investigate potential skill in simulation and prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity. HiFLOR comprises high-resolution (similar to 25-km mesh) atmosphere and land components and a more moderate-resolution (similar to 100-km mesh) sea ice and ocean component. HiFLOR was developed from FLOR by decreasing the horizontal grid spacing of the atmospheric component from 50 to 25 km, while leaving most of the subgrid-scale physical parameterizations unchanged. Compared with FLOR, HiFLOR yields a more realistic simulation of the structure, global distribution, and seasonal and interannual variations of TCs, as well as a comparable simulation of storm-induced cold wakes and TC-genesis modulation induced by the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). Moreover, HiFLOR is able to simulate and predict extremely intense TCs (Saffir-Simpson hurricane categories 4 and 5) and their interannual variations, which represents the first time a global coupled model has been able to simulate such extremely intense TCs in a multicentury simulation, sea surface temperature restoring simulations, and retrospective seasonal predictions.

引用

页码：9058 / 9079

页数：22

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