The fragility of regional energy transitions

Regional energy transitions are dynamic processes. In ideal-typical phase perspectives, transitions undergo 'initiation', 'expansion' and 'consolidation' phases, a linear progression towards increasing stability of the newly introduced institutions and technologies. This paper focuses on the so far underexplored fragility that may occur in the course of this process. Due to their multiscalar embedding regional transitions are highly susceptible to dynamics on the local, regional, national and international level. We systematically explore the conditions underlying this fragility by detailing socio-technical, spatial and phase-oriented aspects of energy transitions. The regional actors' response to fragile conditions is thereby seen as crucial for the continued transition of a region. We draw upon the case of wind sector dynamics in Oldenburg (Germany) and find that, counter to expectations, fragility is not only a characteristic of the early stages, but in this case particularly pronounced in the apparent consolidation of the regional energy transition. The regional actors' strategies in response, however, ensure its likely continuation.