How will diffusion of PV solar contribute to China's emissions-peaking and climate responses?

Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology is widely regarded as a significant and sustainable renewable energy option to fight against climate change.Accordingly, it is important to explore the potential of greenhouse gases (GHGs) mitigation and temperature benefits by substituting PV-generated power for coal-fired electricity. This necessity becomes particularly clear given that China hascommitted itself to a carbon emissions peak around 2030. Based on an integrated energy-economy-environmental model and a simple climate response model, we reach the following conclusions: (1) By restraining the cumulative GHGs emissions space within 255 GtCO(2eq)till 2050, PV solar promises to dominate GHGs mitigation, with the highest contribution reaching 64.67%. (2) Under the moderate emissions-control case, China will achieve its emissions peak target, with solar energy substitution relieving the nation's dependence on coal. (3) The highest radiative forcing and temperature benefits yieldedthrough replacing coal-generated power with solar power is around 20% and 11.05%, respectively. (4) Finally, it is not too costly to gain such benefits: at most, the accumulated economic cost would be 102.14 trillion Yuanuntil 2050, accounting for less than 3% of the accumulated GDP. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.