Uncertainty analysis of an integrated energy system based on information theory

被引：57

作者：

Fu, Xueqian ^{[1
]}

Sun, Hongbin ^{[1
]}

Guo, Qinglai ^{[1
]}

Pan, Zhaoguang ^{[1
]}

Xiong, Wen ^{[2
]}

Wang, Li ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Tsinghua Univ, Dept Elect Engn, State Key Lab Elect Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China

[2] Guangzhou Power Supply Co Ltd, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China

来源：

ENERGY | 2017年 / 122卷

基金：

中国博士后科学基金; 中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Photovoltaic; Combined heat and power; Electric air conditioner; Integrated energy systems; NETWORK FLOW MODEL; HEATING-SYSTEMS; PART I; ELECTRICITY; OPTIMIZATION; MANAGEMENT; CAPACITY; STRATEGY; PV;

D O I：

10.1016/j.energy.2017.01.111

中图分类号：

O414.1 [热力学];

学科分类号：

摘要：

Currently, a custom-designed configuration of different renewable technologies named the integrated energy system (IES) has become popular due to its high efficiency, benefiting from complementary multi-energy technologies. This paper proposes an information entropy approach to quantify uncertainty in an integrated energy system based on a stochastic model that drives a power system model derived from an actual network on Barry Island. Due to the complexity of co-behaviours between generators, a copula-based approach is utilized to articulate the dependency structure of the generator outputs with regard to such factors as weather conditions. Correlation coefficients and mutual information, which are effective for assessing the dependence relationships, are applied to judge whether the stochastic IES model is correct. The calculated information values can be used to analyse the impacts of the coupling of power and heat on power flows and heat flows, and this approach will be helpful for improving the operation of IES. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：649 / 662

页数：14

共 43 条

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