Using an Activity-Based Model to Explore the Potential Impacts of Automated Vehicles

被引:235
作者
Childress, Suzanne [1 ]
Nichols, Brice [1 ]
Charlton, Billy [1 ]
Coe, Stefan [1 ]
机构
[1] Puget Sound Reg Council, 1011 Western Ave,Suite 500, Seattle, WA 98104 USA
关键词
Automation - Decision making - Planning - Taxicabs;
D O I
10.3141/2493-11
中图分类号
TU [建筑科学];
学科分类号
0813 ;
摘要
Automated vehicles (AVs) may enter the consumer market with various stages of automation in 10 years or even sooner. Meanwhile, regional planning agencies are envisioning plans for time horizons out to 2040 and beyond. To help decision makers understand the effect of AV technology on regional plans, modeling tools should anticipate its impact on transportation networks and traveler choices. This research uses the Seattle, Washington, region's activity-based travel model to test a range of travel behavior impacts from AV technology development. The existing model was not originally designed with AVs in mind, so some modifications to the model assumptions are described in areas of roadway capacity, user values of time, and parking costs. Larger structural model changes were not yet considered. Results of four scenario tests show that improvements in roadway capacity and in the quality of the driving trip may lead to large increases in vehicle miles traveled, while a shift to per mile usage charges may counteract that trend. Travel models will need to have major improvements in the coming years, especially with regard to shared ride, taxi modes, and the effect of multitasking opportunities, to better anticipate the arrival of this technology.
引用
收藏
页码:99 / 106
页数:8
相关论文
共 18 条
[1]  
AAA, YOUR DRIV COSTS
[2]  
Bowman J. L., 2008, ACTIVITY BASED MODEL
[3]  
Cervero R., 2001, Induced Demand: An Urban and Metropolitan Perspective
[4]  
Fagnant DJ., 2014, Preparing a nation for autonomous vehicles: opportunities, barriers and policy recommendations for capitalizing on self-driven vehicles
[5]   Platooning With IVC-Enabled Autonomous Vehicles: Strategies to Mitigate Communication Delays, Improve Safety and Traffic Flow [J].
Fernandes, Pedro ;
Nunes, Urbano .
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS, 2012, 13 (01) :91-106
[6]  
FHWA U.S. Department of Transportation, 2014, TRAFF INC MAN
[7]  
Gucwa M., 2014, Mobility and Energy Impacts of Automated Cars
[8]  
Hjorthal R., 2013, 12612013 I TRANSP EC
[9]  
LITMAN T., 2011, Generated Traffic and Induced Travel
[10]  
Litman Tod., 2007, Transportation Cost and Benefit Analysis - Parking Costs