Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression

被引：521

作者：

van de Leemput, Ingrid A. ^{[1
]}

Wichers, Marieke ^{[2
]}

Cramer, Angelique O. J. ^{[3
]}

Borsboom, Denny ^{[3
]}

Tuerlinckx, Francis ^{[4
]}

Kuppens, Peter ^{[4
,5
]}

van Nes, Egbert H. ^{[1
]}

Viechtbauer, Wolfgang ^{[2
]}

Giltay, Erik J. ^{[6
]}

Aggen, Steven H. ^{[7
,8
]}

Derom, Catherine ^{[9
,10
]}

Jacobs, Nele ^{[2
,11
]}

Kendler, Kenneth S. ^{[7
,8
,12
]}

van der Maas, Han L. J. ^{[3
]}

Neale, Michael C. ^{[7
,8
]}

Peeters, Frenk ^{[2
]}

Thiery, Evert ^{[13
]}

Zachar, Peter ^{[14
]}

Scheffer, Marten ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Wageningen Univ, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands

[2] Maastricht Univ, Sch Mental Hlth & Neurosci, Dept Psychiat & Psychol, NL-6200 MD Maastricht, Netherlands

[3] Univ Amsterdam, Dept Psychol, NL-1018 XA Amsterdam, Netherlands

[4] Univ Louvain, KU Leuven, Fac Psychol & Educ Sci, B-3000 Louvain, Belgium

[5] Univ Melbourne, Melbourne Sch Psychol Sci, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia

[6] Leiden Univ, Med Ctr, Dept Psychiat, NL-2300 RC Leiden, Netherlands

[7] Virginia Commonwealth Univ, Virginia Inst Psychiat & Behav Genet, Richmond, VA 23298 USA

[8] Virginia Commonwealth Univ, Dept Psychiat, Richmond, VA 23298 USA

[9] Katholieke Univ Leuven Hosp, Ctr Human Genet, B-3000 Louvain, Belgium

[10] Katholieke Univ Leuven, Dept Human Genet, B-3000 Louvain, Belgium

[11] Open Univ Netherlands, Dept Psychol, NL-6401 DL Heerlen, Netherlands

[12] Virginia Commonwealth Univ, Med Coll Virginia, Dept Human & Mol Genet, Richmond, VA 23298 USA

[13] Univ Ghent, Ghent Univ Hosp, Dept Neurol, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium

[14] Auburn Univ, Dept Psychol, Montgomery, AL 36117 USA

来源：

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | 2014年 / 111卷 / 01期

基金：

欧洲研究理事会;

关键词：

early warning signals; experience sampling method; critical transitions; positive feedback; PERCEIVED CAUSAL RELATIONS; EMOTIONAL INERTIA; NEGATIVE AFFECT; TIPPING POINT; LIFE EVENTS; POPULATION; COMORBIDITY; SIGNALS; STRESS; ASSOCIATIONS;

D O I：

10.1073/pnas.1312114110

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

About 17% of humanity goes through an episode of major depression at some point in their lifetime. Despite the enormous societal costs of this incapacitating disorder, it is largely unknown how the likelihood of falling into a depressive episode can be assessed. Here, we show for a large group of healthy individuals and patients that the probability of an upcoming shift between a depressed and a normal state is related to elevated temporal autocorrelation, variance, and correlation between emotions in fluctuations of autorecorded emotions. These are indicators of the general phenomenon of critical slowing down, which is expected to occur when a system approaches a tipping point. Our results support the hypothesis that mood may have alternative stable states separated by tipping points, and suggest an approach for assessing the likelihood of transitions into and out of depression.

引用

页码：87 / 92

页数：6

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