Discrete-time deterministic and stochastic models for the spread of rabies

被引:26
作者
Allen, LJS [1 ]
Flores, DA
Ratnayake, RK
Herbold, JR
机构
[1] Texas Tech Univ, Dept Math & Stat, Lubbock, TX 79409 USA
[2] Univ Texas, Sch Publ Hlth, San Antonio, TX 78229 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
rabies; epidemic; stochastic; deterministic; structured model;
D O I
10.1016/S0096-3003(01)00192-8
中图分类号
O29 [应用数学];
学科分类号
070104 ;
摘要
Discrete spatial and temporal models for the spread and control of rabies are developed, analyzed and simulated. First, a deterministic model is formulated, then an analogous stochastic model. The models are structured with respect to space (in patches), age (juveniles and adults) and disease state. For each patch there are six state variables corresponding to either juveniles or adults and their disease state: susceptible, infected, or vaccinated. The models have seven stages which repeat every year. The impact of different vaccination strategies on the dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic models are compared. In particular, the relationships among the vaccination proportion, the width of the vaccination barrier, the initial number infected, and the transmissibility of the disease are examined. An estimate for the probability of disease elimination is given for the stochastic model. It is shown that in some cases where the deterministic model predicts disease persistence, the stochastic model predicts a high probability of disease elimination. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:271 / 292
页数:22
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