Rural sustainability under threat in Zimbabwe - Simulation of future land use/cover changes in the Bindura district based on the Markov-cellular automata model

被引：272

作者：

Kamusoko, Courage ^{[1
]}

Aniya, Masamu ^{[1
]}

Adi, Bongo ^{[2
]}

Manjoro, Munyaradzi ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Tsukuba, Grad Sch Life & Environm Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058572, Japan

[2] Univ Tsukuba, Grad Sch Humanities & Social Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058572, Japan

[3] Bindura Univ Sci Educ, Dept Geog, Bindura, Zimbabwe

来源：

APPLIED GEOGRAPHY | 2009年 / 29卷 / 03期

关键词：

Land use/cover change; Multicriteria evaluation (MCE); Multi-objective land allocation (MOLA); Markov-cellular automata model; Zimbabwe; SPATIAL SIMULATION; COVER CHANGE; RESOURCE USE; AGRICULTURE; DYNAMICS; IMPACT; GIS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.apgeog.2008.10.002

中图分类号：

P9 [自然地理学]; K9 [地理];

学科分类号：

0705 ; 070501 ;

摘要：

Spatially explicit land use/cover models are indispensable for sustainable rural land use planning, particularly in southern African countries that are experiencing rapid land use/cover changes. Using Zimbabwe as an example, we simulated future land use/cover changes up to 2030 based on a Markov-cellular automata model that integrates Markovian transition probabilities computed from satellite-derived land use/cover maps and a cellular automata spatial filter. A multicriteria evaluation (MCE) procedure was used to generate transition potential maps from biophysical and socioeconomic data. Dynamic adjustments of transition probabilities and transition potential map thresholds were implemented in the Markov-cellular automata model through a multi-objective land allocation (MOLA) procedure. Using the normalised transition probabilities, the Markov-cellular automata model simulated future land use/cover changes (up to 2030) under the 2000 calibration scenario, predicting a continuing downward trend in woodland areas and an upward trend in bareland areas. Future land use/cover simulations indicated that if the current land use/cover trends continue in the study area without holistic sustainable development measures, severe land degradation will ensue. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：435 / 447

页数：13

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