Malignant side effects of null-hypothesis significance testing

被引:57
作者
Branch, Marc [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA
关键词
reliability; p values; replication; generality; evolving science; STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE TESTS; P-VALUE; PSYCHOLOGY; SCIENCE; REPLICABILITY; REPLICATION; BEHAVIOR; TRIALS; WILL;
D O I
10.1177/0959354314525282
中图分类号
B84 [心理学];
学科分类号
04 ; 0402 ;
摘要
Six decades-worth of published information has shown irrefutably that null-hypothesis significance tests (NHSTs) provide no information about the reliability of research outcomes. Nevertheless, they are still the core of editorial decision-making in Psychology. Two reasons appear to contribute to the continuing practice. One, survey information suggests that a majority of psychological researchers incorrectly believe that p values provide information about reliability of results. Two, a position sometimes taken is that using them to make decisions has been essentially benign. The mistaken belief has been pointed out many times, so it is briefly covered because of the apparent persistence of the misunderstanding. The idea that NHSTs have been benign is challenged by seven "side-effects" that continue to retard effective development of psychological science. The article concludes with both a few suggestions about possible alternatives and a challenge to psychological researchers to develop new methods that actually assess the reliability of research findings.
引用
收藏
页码:256 / 277
页数:22
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