Space-for-Time Substitution Works in Everglades Ecological Forecasting Models

被引:28
作者
Banet, Amanda I. [1 ]
Trexler, Joel C. [1 ]
机构
[1] Florida Int Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Miami, FL 33199 USA
来源
PLOS ONE | 2013年 / 8卷 / 11期
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
CLIMATE ENVELOPE; MANAGEMENT; DYNAMICS; PATTERNS; DESIGNS; FISHES;
D O I
10.1371/journal.pone.0081025
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Space-for-time substitution is often used in predictive models because long-term time-series data are not available. Critics of this method suggest factors other than the target driver may affect ecosystem response and could vary spatially, producing misleading results. Monitoring data from the Florida Everglades were used to test whether spatial data can be substituted for temporal data in forecasting models. Spatial models that predicted bluefin killifish (Lucania goodei) population response to a drying event performed comparably and sometimes better than temporal models. Models worked best when results were not extrapolated beyond the range of variation encompassed by the original dataset. These results were compared to other studies to determine whether ecosystem features influence whether space-for-time substitution is feasible. Taken in the context of other studies, these results suggest space-for-time substitution may work best in ecosystems with low beta-diversity, high connectivity between sites, and small lag in organismal response to the driver variable.
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页数:10
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