Predicted Changes in Climatic Niche of Alburnus Species (Teleostei: Cyprinidae) in Iran Until 2050

Distribution ranges of many organisms are changing in response to global climate change and human activities. To test the impact of climatic change on distribution range of cyprinid fish species, Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) was used to predict the current climatically suitable habitats and to identify key variables shaping the potential distribution for the genus Alburnus in Iran, an excellent example of high diversity and endemism in the western Palearctic region. Then, future changes in potential suitable areas of the genus Alburnus were evaluated with one future global climatic model (GCM) based on 2050 climatic projection. Results show as a general pattern, basins along the Elburz and Zagros Mountains had highest climatic suitability for the genus in Iran. According to the results of jackknife test and percent contribution of each variable to construct the models, precipitation plays the important role on the distribution of Alburnus species in Iran than temperature. Model outputs show all species likely to be negatively affected by the climate change in future and the currently potential suitable areas were predicted to decrease in the coming decades, suggesting a comprehensive management plan for conservation of this cyprinid fish need to be conducted in the country.