A discrete-event computer model of feline herpes virus within cat populations

The purpose of this work; was to study the epidemiology of feline herpes virus (FHV), which causes a respiratory disease within natural populations of domestic cats. A stochastic model was constructed using discrete-events simulation. Two habitats (rural vs. urban) were simulated, featuring different demographic, spatial and social patterns. The evolution of immunity in individuals was reproduced, allowing for the random recrudescence of latent infections (influenced by environment and reproduction). Hypotheses concerning the circulation of FHV were examined regarding the role of host density and the possibility of reinfection of host. Uncertainty analyses were performed on the basis of replicated Monte Carlo sampling. The results were in good agreement with serologic data from a long-term study conducted on five populations in France. The model satisfactorily reproduced the variability of natural immunity, and the epidemic features observed. The simulations have shown that FHV can persist in small populations (because of its capacity of reactivation leading to epidemics). However, the impact on demography was not dramatic. The most important parameters in determining change in epidemiology of FHV were: transmission rate corresponding to 'friendly' contacts, and the recrudescence rate of FHV. However, an interaction between these two parameters did not allow estimation of their values. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.