Gray Neural Network Forecasting Model of Power Load Based on Ant Colony Algorithm Method

被引:1
作者
Niu, Dong-xiao [1 ]
Lv, Jia-liang [2 ]
Jia, Jian-rong [2 ]
机构
[1] NCEPU, Sch Business Adm, Beijing, Peoples R China
[2] NCEPU, Sch Business Adm, Baoding, Peoples R China
来源
2008 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON RISK MANAGEMENT AND ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT, ICRMEM 2008, PROCEEDINGS | 2008年
关键词
power load; BP neural network; ant colony algorithm; GM(1,1) model;
D O I
10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.30
中图分类号
TP39 [计算机的应用];
学科分类号
081203 ; 0835 ;
摘要
Because power loads are influenced by various factors, and the changes of power load presents are complicate, the traditional forecasting methods are always not satisfied. According to the random-increase and non-linearity fluctuation of residual series, gray neural network forecasting can reflect the increase character and non-linearity relationship. This paper using the improved ACO method as the basis of combination weight making, so as to achieve the goal of optimizing the whole forecasting precision and find the combination weight that can exhibit the high consistency and high precision for the series values, finally the whole forecasting accuracy can be improved obviously. Through the calculation of the power loads in a province which is compared with other algorithms, the results prove that this method can effectively improve the accuracy of power load forecasting.
引用
收藏
页码:222 / +
页数:2
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