Dynamic modeling of uncertainty in the planned values of investments in petrochemical and refining projects

被引：4

作者：

Vianello, Juliano Melquiades ^{[1
]}

Costa, Leticia ^{[1
]}

Teixeira, Jose Paulo ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Pontifical Catholic Univ Rio de Janeiro, Dept Ind Engn, BR-22453900 Rio De Janeiro, RJ, Brazil

来源：

ENERGY ECONOMICS | 2014年 / 45卷

关键词：

Stochastic process; Mean reversion movement; Real options; Monte Carlo simulation; Project analysis;

D O I：

10.1016/j.eneco.2014.06.002

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

There is a large gap between the planned value of investment in a project and its financial implementation. This fact creates a mismatch between the planned and effectively achieved net present value (NPV) of the project. Considering the project portfolio of a company, this could even threaten your solvency in the future. Therefore, a quantitative-risk analysis that takes into account different possible scenarios for these values of investment is extremely important to measure statistically the real value of a project. The aim of this paper is to present the reasons for this mismatch between planned and executed investments and, from this study, obtain a suitable stochastic process to generate different scenarios for these investments in the oil industry. Although the results are valid for projects in the petrochemical and refining sector, also called in the oil industry as downstream, the methodology can be applied to the upstream or even other branches of industry. (C)2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：10 / 18

页数：9