World population stabilization unlikely this century

被引：850

作者：

Gerland, Patrick ^{[1
]}

Raftery, Adrian E. ^{[2
,3
]}

Sevcikova, Hana ^{[4
]}

Li, Nan ^{[1
]}

Gu, Danan ^{[1
]}

Spoorenberg, Thomas ^{[1
]}

Alkema, Leontine ^{[5
,6
]}

Fosdick, Bailey K. ^{[7
]}

Chunn, Jennifer ^{[8
]}

Lalic, Nevena ^{[9
]}

Bay, Guiomar ^{[10
]}

Buettner, Thomas ^{[11
]}

Heilig, Gerhard K. ^{[11
]}

Wilmoth, John ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] UN, Dept Econ & Social Affairs, Populat Div, New York, NY 10017 USA

[2] Univ Washington, Dept Stat, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[3] Univ Washington, Dept Sociol, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[4] Univ Washington, Ctr Stat & Social Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[5] Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Stat & Appl Probabil, Singapore 117546, Singapore

[6] Natl Univ Singapore, Saw Swee Hock Sch Publ Hlth, Singapore 117546, Singapore

[7] Colorado State Univ, Dept Stat, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA

[8] James Cook Univ Singapore, Singapore 574421, Singapore

[9] Univ Washington, Inst Res, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[10] United Nations Econ Commiss Latin Amer & Caribbea, Populat Div, Latin Amer & Caribbean Demog Ctr CELADE, Santiago, Chile

[11] UN, Populat Div, New York, NY 10017 USA

来源：

SCIENCE | 2014年 / 346卷 / 6206期

基金：

爱尔兰科学基金会;

关键词：

PROBABILISTIC PROJECTIONS; FERTILITY;

D O I：

10.1126/science.1257469

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

The United Nations (UN) recently released population projections based on data until 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. Analysis of these data reveals that, contrary to previous literature, the world population is unlikely to stop growing this century. There is an 80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion people, will increase to between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion in 2100. This uncertainty is much smaller than the range from the traditional UN high and low variants. Much of the increase is expected to happen in Africa, in part due to higher fertility rates and a recent slowdown in the pace of fertility decline. Also, the ratio of working-age people to older people is likely to decline substantially in all countries, even those that currently have young populations.

引用

页码：234 / 237

页数：4

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