Evaluation of Adaptive Utilization Capacity of Water Resources and Analysis of Driving Element: A Case Study of Tarim River Basin

The research on the adaptive utilization of water resources (AUWR) is of great significance to improve the coordinated development among water resources, economic society, and ecological environment in complex environments, and to promote the development of adaptive utilization of regional water resources. Based on the calculation method of harmony theory and the calculation method of the comprehensive co-evolution model, this paper obtains the harmony degree and adaptive utilization capacity of water resources (AUCWR) of each subsystem in the Tarim River Basin (TRB), analyzes the main factors affecting the AUCWR, and finally compares the two methods. The results show that: (1) From 2004 to 2018, the AUCWR in the TRB has gradually improved (harmony theory method: from 0.43 in 2004 to 0.56 in 2018, with a growth rate of 30.23%; comprehensive co-evolution model method: from 0.37 in 2004 to 0.62 in 2018, with a significant increase of 67.57%) and (2) From the perspective of indicators, indicators such as per capita GDP, the proportion of non-agricultural output value in GDP, and per capita net income of rural residents have a greater impact on the AUCWR in the TRB. Using different calculation methods to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the AUCWR in the TRB has important guiding significance for the future development and utilization of water resources, economic and social development, and ecological environment protection.