Assessing the reliability and validity of an FRAM model: the case of driving in an overtaking scenario

Over the past two decades, systemic-based risk assessment methods have garnered more attention, and their use and popularity are growing. In particular, the functional resonance analysis method (FRAM) is one of the most widely used systemic methods for risk assessment and accident analysis. FRAM has been progressively evolved since its starting point and is considered to be the most recent and promising step in understanding socio-technical systems. However, there is currently a lack of any formal testing of the reliability and validity of FRAM, something which applies to Human Factors and Ergonomics research as a whole, where validation is both a particularly challenging issue and an ongoing concern. Therefore, this paper aims to define a more formal approach to achieving and demonstrating the reliability and validity of an FRAM model, as well as to apply this formal approach partly to an existing FRAM model so as to prove its validity. At the same time, it hopes to evaluate the general applicability of this approach to potentially improve the performance and value of the FRAM method. Thus, a formal approach was derived by transferring both the general understanding and definitions of reliability and validity as well as concrete methods and techniques to the concept of FRAM. Consequently, predictive validity, which is the highest maxim of validation, was assessed for a specific FRAM model in a driving simulator study using the signal detection theory. The results showed that the predictive validity of the FRAM model is limited and a generalisation with changing system conditions is impossible without some adaptations of the model. The applicability of the approach is diminished because of several methodological limitations. Therefore, the reliability and validity framework can be utilised to calibrate rather than validate an FRAM model.