If you don't want to be late, enumerate: Unpacking reduces the planning fallacy

被引：122

作者：

Kruger, J ^{[1
]}

Evans, M ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Illinois, Dept Psychol, Champaign, IL 61820 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY | 2004年 / 40卷 / 05期

关键词：

planning fallacy; forecasting; overconfidence; heuristics and biases; decomposition; support theory; unpacking;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jesp.2003.11.001

中图分类号：

B84 [心理学];

学科分类号：

04 ; 0402 ;

摘要：

People tend to underestimate how long it will take to complete tasks. We suggest that one reason people commit this planning fallacy is that they do not naturally "unpack" multifaceted tasks (e.g., writing a manuscript) into subcomponents (completing the literature review, general discussion, references section, etc.) when making predictions. We tested this interpretation by asking participants to estimate how long it would take them to complete one of several tasks: holiday shopping in Experiment 1, "getting ready" for a date in Experiment 2, formatting a document in Experiments 3 and 5, and preparing food in Experiment 4. Participants prompted to unpack the task provided longer-and, in Experiments 3-4, less biased-estimates of how long the task would take than did participants who did not. Experiment 5 showed that the debiasing influence of unpacking is moderated by task complexity: the more multifaceted the task, the greater the influence of unpacking. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：586 / 598

页数：13

共 37 条

[1]

[Anonymous], 2002, HEURISTICS BIASES

[2]

[Anonymous], 1982, Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

[3] Situated optimism: Specific outcome expectancies and self-regulation [J].

Armor, DA ;

Taylor, SE .

ADVANCES IN EXPERIMENTAL SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, VOL 30, 1998, 30 :309-379

[4] USE OF DECOMPOSITION PRINCIPLE IN MAKING JUDGMENTS [J].

ARMSTRONG, JS ;

DENNISTON, WB ;

GORDON, MM .

ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN PERFORMANCE, 1975, 14 (02) :257-263

[5] SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY OF COMPOUND EVENTS [J].

BARHILLEL, M .

ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN PERFORMANCE, 1973, 9 (03) :396-406

[6]

BARHILLEL M, 1983, DECISION MAKING UNCE, P36

[7] EXPLORING THE PLANNING FALLACY - WHY PEOPLE UNDERESTIMATE THEIR TASK COMPLETION TIMES [J].

BUEHLER, R ;

GRIFFIN, D ;

ROSS, M .

JOURNAL OF PERSONALITY AND SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, 1994, 67 (03) :366-381

[8] The role of motivated reasoning in optimistic time predictions [J].

Buehler, R ;

Griffin, D ;

MacDonald, H .

PERSONALITY AND SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY BULLETIN, 1997, 23 (03) :238-247

[9]

BUEHLER R, 2000, UNPUB CROSS CULTURAL

[10]

BUHLER R, 2001, ANN M SOC PERS SOC P

← 1 2 3 4 →