Carbon cycle uncertainty in the Alaskan Arctic

被引：94

作者：

Fisher, J. B. ^{[1
]}

Sikka, M. ^{[1
]}

Oechel, W. C. ^{[2
,3
]}

Huntzinger, D. N. ^{[4
]}

Melton, J. R. ^{[5
]}

Koven, C. D. ^{[6
]}

Ahlstrom, A. ^{[7
]}

Arain, M. A. ^{[8
,9
]}

Baker, I. ^{[10
]}

Chen, J. M. ^{[11
]}

Ciais, P. ^{[12
]}

Davidson, C. ^{[13
]}

Dietze, M. ^{[14
]}

El-Masri, B. ^{[15
]}

Hayes, D. ^{[16
,17
]}

Huntingford, C. ^{[18
]}

Jain, A. K. ^{[15
]}

Levy, P. E. ^{[19
]}

Lomas, M. R. ^{[20
]}

Poulter, B. ^{[12
]}

Price, D. ^{[21
]}

Sahoo, A. K. ^{[22
]}

Schaefer, K. ^{[23
]}

Tian, H. ^{[24
]}

Tomelleri, E. ^{[25
]}

Verbeeck, H. ^{[26
]}

Viovy, N. ^{[12
]}

Wania, R. ^{[27
]}

Zeng, N. ^{[28
]}

Miller, C. E. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA 91109 USA

[2] San Diego State Univ, Dept Biol, Global Change Res Grp, San Diego, CA 92182 USA

[3] Open Univ, Dept Environm Earth & Ecosyst, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, Bucks, England

[4] Univ Arizona, Sch Earth Sci & Environm Sustainabil, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA

[5] Environm Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada

[6] Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Earth Sci Div, Berkeley, CA 94708 USA

[7] Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Sci, S-22362 Lund, Sweden

[8] McMaster Univ, Sch Geog Earth Sci, Hamilton, ON, Canada

[9] McMaster Univ, McMaster Ctr Climate Change, Hamilton, ON, Canada

[10] Colorado State Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA

[11] Univ Toronto, Dept Geog, Toronto, ON M5S 3G3, Canada

[12] Orme Merisiers, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France

[13] Univ Illinois, Program Ecol Evolut & Conservat Biol, Urbana, IL 61801 USA

[14] Boston Univ, Dept Earth & Environm, Boston, MA 02215 USA

[15] Univ Illinois, Dept Atmospher Sci, Urbana, IL 61801 USA

[16] Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Climate Change Sci Inst, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA

[17] Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA

[18] Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England

[19] Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Penicuik EH26 0QB, Midlothian, Scotland

[20] Univ Sheffield, Dept Anim & Plant Sci, Ctr Terr Carbon Dynam, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England

[21] Nat Resources Canada, No Forestry Ctr, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada

[22] Princeton Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA

[23] Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Natl Snow & Ice Data Ctr, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

[24] Auburn Univ, Sch Forestry & Wildlife Sci, Auburn, AL 36849 USA

[25] Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, Biogeochem Model Data Integrat Grp, D-07745 Jena, Germany

[26] Univ Ghent, Fac Biosci Engn, Lab Plant Ecol, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium

[27] Univ Montpellier 2, CNRS, Inst Sci Evolut UMR5554, F-34090 Montpellier, France

[28] Univ Maryland, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA

来源：

BIOGEOSCIENCES | 2014年 / 11卷 / 15期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会; 美国国家航空航天局; 加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会;

关键词：

GLOBAL WETLAND EXTENT; CLIMATE-CHANGE; PERMAFROST CARBON; TERRESTRIAL BIOSPHERE; TUNDRA ECOSYSTEMS; METHANE EMISSIONS; PRESENT STATE; LAND-COVER; MODEL; CO2;

D O I：

10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014

中图分类号：

Q14 [生态学（生物生态学）];

学科分类号：

071012 ; 0713 ;

摘要：

Climate change is leading to a disproportionately large warming in the high northern latitudes, but the magnitude and sign of the future carbon balance of the Arctic are highly uncertain. Using 40 terrestrial biosphere models for the Alaskan Arctic from four recent model intercomparison projects - NACP (North American Carbon Program) site and regional syntheses, TRENDY (Trends in net land atmosphere carbon exchanges), and WETCHIMP (Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project) - we provide a baseline of terrestrial carbon cycle uncertainty, defined as the multi-model standard deviation (sigma) for each quantity that follows. Mean annual absolute uncertainty was largest for soil carbon (14.0+/-9.2 kgCm(-2)), then gross primary production (GPP) (0.22+/-0.50 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), ecosystem respiration (Re) (0.23+/-0.38 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), net primary production (NPP) (0.14+/-0.33 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), autotrophic respiration (Ra) (0.09+/-0.20 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), heterotrophic respiration (Rh) (0.14+/-0.20 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) (-0.01+/-0.19 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), and CH4 flux (2.52+/-4.02 g CH4 m(-2) yr(-1)). There were no consistent spatial patterns in the larger Alaskan Arctic and boreal regional carbon stocks and fluxes, with some models showing NEE for Alaska as a strong carbon sink, others as a strong carbon source, while still others as carbon neutral. Finally, AmeriFlux data are used at two sites in the Alaskan Arctic to evaluate the regional patterns; observed seasonal NEE was captured within multi-model uncertainty. This assessment of carbon cycle uncertainties may be used as a baseline for the improvement of experimental and modeling activities, as well as a reference for future trajectories in carbon cycling with climate change in the Alaskan Arctic and larger boreal region.

引用

页码：4271 / 4288

页数：18

共 102 条

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