Flexibility Oriented Combined Heat and Power Dispatch under Uncertainties

The flexible resources of district heating system (DHS) can effectively cope with the fluctuation of photovoltaic (PV) output and improve the security of electric power network. A stochastic optimization method is proposed in this paper for power distribution network with high penetration of PV based on probabilistic forecasting and aggregate flexibility of DHS. Firstly, an adaptive robust optimization framework is used to aggregate the flexible resources of DHS, and the heat output interval is derived to achieve the decoupling of integrated electric-heating system. Then, the PV forecasting result is obtained by nonparametric probabilistic forecasting. Accordingly, PV scenarios with temporal correlation are acquired using Copula formulations. Based on the typical PV scenarios and aggregate flexibility of DHS, the stochastic optimization for combined heat and power dispatch is established. The case study demonstrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed optimization method.